ME-637 Extreme Events Modelling

ME-637 Extreme Events Modelling

Credit Hours = 3

COURSE CONTENT

Applications of Extreme Value Theory, Data-based Predictions versus Dynamical Models, Stochastic Modelling of Extreme Events, Extreme Value Theory/Problems (EVP), Extreme Value Probability distributions: Gumbel Distribution, Frechet Distribution, Weibull Distribution, Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEV), Estimation of 3 parameter GEV, Likelihood and log-likelihood of an extreme event, Exceedance Probability, Mean excess plot and Pareto distribution of EVP random variable, Risk Assessment Number, Economic Impact of Extreme Events, Resilience, Forecasting of techno-socioeconomic indicators during extreme events: Time Series Models (Quantitative), Exponential Smoothing, Moving Average, Trend Projection and Delphi Method (Qualitative),  Water-Food-Energy Nexus in emergency, Steps for Emergency Response, Natural Emergency situations, Case Studies.

RECOMMENDED BOOKS

1. Mario Chavez, Michael Ghil, Jaime Urrutia-Fucugauchi, “Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling, and Economics”, American Geophysical Union, 2015.
2. Federico Castillo et al, “Extreme Events and Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Approach”, Wiley, 2021.
3. Louise K. Comfort, Arjen Boin, Chris C. Demchak, “Designing Resilience: Preparing for Extreme Events”, University of Pittsburgh Press, 2010.
4. Rais Akhtar, “Extreme Weather Events and Human Health: International Case Studies”, Springer, 2020.